July 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. and Chinese economic leaders pledged to keep up stimulus efforts and to rein in trade and investment imbalances that contributed to the global crisis.
“It is vitally important for China and the United States to see through their commitments to repair the financial system and lay the foundation for recovery,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said at the end of the first Strategic and Economic Dialogue talks under the Obama administration in Washington. China’s Vice Premier Wang Qishan said the two will press for an “expansion” of the recovery.
The U.S. pledged to curb the budget deficit and boost household savings, and China committed to rely less on overseas demand for its goods. There were few signs of the disputes over the yuan and market access that characterized talks in the Bush administration. Analysts expressed skepticism whether the two governments can secure “balanced” growth.
“These statements are made in good faith, but the issue is that you can’t just wave a magic wand and get there overnight,” said Huw McKay, senior international economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “These things take long periods of time.”
The two sides indicated that while economic data improved in recent months, a self-sustaining rebound has yet to emerge. In the U.S., President Barack Obama is implementing a $787 billion fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke doubled the central bank’s balance sheet to about $2 trillion. China has a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus.
‘Strong’ Responses
“Both countries pledged to maintain their strong policy responses until recovery is secured,” the U.S. Treasury said in a statement.
Zhou Xiaochuan, the Chinese central bank governor, said China will wait for the U.S. to begin to pull back on its stimulus measures before deciding whether it will do the same.
“If we see that the U.S. starts to exit its expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, then China will see what it will do at that time,” Zhou said at a press briefing today.
The People’s Bank of China governor also said that “I believe that the Federal Reserve of the U.S. will make appropriate arrangements to prevent high inflation.”
The U.S. Treasury highlighted China’s commitments to liberalize business and investment rules, including letting international banks underwrite Chinese bonds, raising the threshold for foreign direct investments that need government approval, and loosening limits on interest rates.
‘Sustainable’ Deficit
China’s officials reiterated their concern at the record American budget deficit, and were told by Obama’s aides that there’s a plan to achieve a “sustainable” deficit by 2013. Their comments today indicated they accepted the U.S. presentation.
“Credible steps will be taken by the U.S. to control the deficit,” China’s Finance Minister Xie Xuren said at a press briefing today. “The Treasury secretary stated clearly that they are placing a lot of importance on this issue.”
At stake is sustaining demand for U.S. debt from China, the largest foreign holder of Treasuries. The federal deficit is on course to reach $1.8 trillion this year; China’s investments in Treasuries reached $801.5 billion in May, about 100 percent more than at the start of 2007.
“We are joined at the hip with China and that means both countries need to be sensitive to each other’s needs, each other’s problems,” Mickey Kantor, a former U.S. Trade Representative, said in an interview from Los Angeles.
Yuan Policy
China’s Treasuries holdings also are the result of holding down the value of the yuan, a policy that U.S. lawmakers have charged is designed to provide a subsidy for its exports. The yuan has hovered around 6.83 per dollar since July last year after gaining about 21 percent since China lifted a strict peg to the dollar in July 2005.
Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters yesterday that “compared with previous meetings” between Chinese and U.S. officials, “the U.S. side doesn’t lay as much emphasis on renminbi exchange-rate reform and opening of capital markets.” The yuan is a denomination of the renminbi.
The effort to produce more “balanced” growth comes after Bernanke and other officials blamed imbalances in trade, spending and investment for helping spark the crisis.
Trade, Investment
U.S. consumers relied on borrowing to finance their purchases, contributing to an export boom from Asia. As China and other Asian nations accumulated dollars from trade surpluses, they bought bonds and depressed global yields. Lower borrowing costs helped stoke the housing and credit booms that turned to bust in 2007.
China and the U.S. will aim to “bring about more balanced and sustainable global economic growth after a global recovery is firmly established,” the two sides said in a fact sheet on the economic side of the talks.
“Building a consumption-based economy is overdone and overhyped” with regard to China, Donald Straszheim, who heads Straszheim Global Advisors Inc. in Los Angeles. “It will take a generation, not just a few years, for China’s consumer sector to really develop.”
In the U.S., officials will take steps to reduce its current-account deficit, boost private savings and cut its budget deficit once a recovery is “firmly established,” Geithner said.
The U.S. savings rate reached 6.9 percent in May, the highest level since 1993, as Americans consumers curtailed spending. Geithner said he expects those gains to be part of a more permanent shift.
“We’re more likely to decide that these changes we’ve seen in private savings already are durable,” Geithner said. “We’ve learned some tough lessons as a country. I think the basic lesson, the importance of living within our means, is best for the country, and at the household level, is an important, necessary lesson.”
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